It’s only been in the past 60 or so years that humans have been able to
rely on television meteorologists for weather predictions. Before Al
Roker, the Babylonians looked at cloud formations; in 300 BC, the
Chinese had a calendar broken into 24 festivals, each with its own
unique weather patterns.

I first watched this film a year ago, after seeing a poster picture on
DB, which looked very much like some old film from the 40s or 50s. I
started to watch it, didn’t expect much, but it got more and more
interesting, by the middle of it, it was already on my favorite list. I
have watched it a couple more times since, always a good chuckle.

Tom Yulsman| February 8, 2018 5:39 pm177

直到大概60年前,人类才足以通过看TV上的天气预先报告来预知气候。在有United States气象播报员阿尔·Locke在此之前,巴比伦人是通过观看云体产生来预感天气的;在公元前300年,中中原人民共和国人将一年分成二十二个节气,每种节气都有各自独特的天气情势。

The film has all the good elements, story, script, directing, casting,
music and rhythm. Bill Murray was especially good for the role, Andie
MacDowell was as always beautiful, all the supporting cast was good,
even that little furry groundhog. The story was funny, though I am not
particularly taken by the implied logic, that love is the key of
salvation, Phil started to have a positive take on the situation after
he confessed his love to Rita, and was eventually rescued after he
gained her love, a little bit of preaching, ha, Hollywood. The music
went perfect with the plot, was, of course, done by George Fenton, whose
other works include Life series and Planet Earth, and among others,
White Palace.

Arctic Sea Ice Just Set Another Record Low—In Winter

Today we use satellites and other costly equipment to gauge our
environment, examining changes in the atmosphere and running
sophisticated computer models. And sometimes, we just stare at a
groundhog.

The story started when Phil and Rita and camera man Larry went to
Punxsutawney PA to report the annual Groundhog Festival, which Phil
hated. On the way back they were caught by an unexpected blizzard and
was stuck in Punxsutawney.

And what’s happening in the New Arctic isnot staying there

图片 1

I shot thisiPhone photo of Arctic sea ice in the Davis Strait between
Greenland and Baffin Islandwhile flyingfrom Icelandto Denver on Jan. 30,

  1. (Photo: ©Tom Yulsman)

Another month, yet another record low forArctic sea ice extent in a
warming world.

January’saverage ice extent in the Arctic was 525,000 square miles below
the 1981-to-2010 average, making it the lowest January extent in the
satellite record. This is an astonishingly large loss of ice —
equivalent to 80 percent of Alaska.

But what happened in January was equally, if notmore significant, for
its timing. Ithappened when the Arctic was grippedby frigid, polar
weather.

Record lows in the Arcticonce occurred mostly in September — at the end
of summer when relatively warm temperatures naturally cause the frozen
lid of sea ice to shrink to an annual minimum extent. With human-caused
warming added on top of relatively mild summertemperatures,
recordmelt-backs in summer perhaps arenot sosurprising.

But now, dramatic reductions in sea ice are occurring more and more
often during the cold season.

“Now we are seeing winter really get into the act as well,” says NSIDC
director Mark Serreze. “The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover is no longer
something that just stands out in summer.”

Thisshift to record lows in winter,scientists say, is yet another
indication that human activities have already transformed the region
into what they’re calling “the new Arctic.”

No surprises here: average January #Arcticsea ice extent was the
lowest in the satellite record…

Data from@NSIDCat

— Zack Labe February 2, 2018

Why should those of us who don’t live in the Arctic care about what’s
happening up there?

Péter Szijjártó, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade for Hungary —
obviously not an Arctic nation — answered that question in this way,
during an address to theArctic Frontiers conferencein Norway last month:
“Whatever happens here in the Arctic has a direct and immediate impact
on the rest of the world, and especially Europe.”

I don’t know about “immediate,” but there are myriadways that changes in
the Arctic are affecting the rest of the world — for example, changes to
fisheries as fish stocks move north, and possible (but still unproven)
effectson weatherfar to the south.

Shrivelingsea ice also has turnedthe region into something of a new
frontier. Many nations are eyeing the Arctic’s opening sea routes, its
strategic position between Eurasia and North America, and its
potentially hugereserves of oil and gas, as well as other resources.

This, in turn, is having geopolitical consequences. Among them: Russian
military moves that some analysts believe are designedto bring down an
“ice curtain” in the region — intended todeny other nations access to
large swaths of the Arctic.

As sea ice growth last monthwas lagging far behind normal and heading
for its record low, politicians andscientistsattending the Arctic
Frontiers conference were discussing the ramifications of thenew Arctic.
Among the scientists was Ingrid H. Onarheim,a researcher atthe
University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.

She began anoverview talk about Arctic sea ice by putting the trendinto
a long-term context: “The recent sea ice loss is unprecedented,” she
said, at least during the last 160 or so years.

Modern satellite monitoring of sea ice could not by itself reveal that
insight, because it dates back only to 1979. So fora longer term
perspective,researchers fromNSIDC and elsewhereturned to noveldata
sources. These includedwhaling ship logs,sea ice chartsfrom the Danish
Meteorological Institute, compilations by U.S. Navy oceanographers,
observations from aircraft, and other sources. All of this disparate
informationhad to be digitized and then synthesized to be compatible
with one another.

The resulting database, going all the way back to 1850, showsthat at
least since then “we’ve never had as little ice as we have now,”
Onarheim told her colleagues at Arctic Frontiers.

Here’s what that looks like in graphic form:

图片 2

Source:“A database for depicting Arctic sea ice variations back to
1850,” John E. Walsh et al, Geographical Review, 11 July 2016

Before getting into what these maps show,I shouldpoint out that there is
a typo in the oneon the left. It should be 1850-1900.

With that correction in mind, let’s turn to the details. The
left-handmap above shows the concentration of sea ice during September
of1854. Thenew databaseshows thatthis month had the smallest ice extent
duringthe entire 1850-1900period.

The other maps in the triptych show what sea ice looked like for the
lowest September in each of those respective periods.

The take-away message from the triptych is pretty clear. As theauthors
of the paper describing the new long-term database wrote:

It is apparent that the recent September minimum of 2012 is far less
than the minima of the two earlier . . . periods. This comparison
indicates that the summer ice minima of the past decade have no
precedents in earlier decades back to 1850.

But as last month’s record low ice extent shows, significant sea ice
losses are no longer mostly confined to the warmer months. I think you
can see that pretty well in this graphicshowing how Arctic sea ice fared
during each of the 1,956months between1850 and2013:

图片 3

The status of Arctic sea ice month-by-month (vertical axis) and
year-by-year (horizontal axis). Blues indicate ice extent that’s below
the long-term mean. Reds indicate the opposite. (Source: Cooperative
Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, after a figure by
Julienne Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center)

The first thing that jumps out atme is the dominanceof blue, meaning
lower than average sea ice, starting around 1975. It’s most pronounced
during July, August and September, the warm months. But recently,
deeperblues have been spreading out into the cold season months
ofNovember through April.

“We are losing sea ice in all seasons now,” Onarheimsaid, echoing the
NSIDC’s Mark Serreze. “The changes in ice are spreading from the summer
to winter season.”

There is no doubt as to what’s behind the accelerating decline of the
sea ice at the top of the world: warming fromhumankind’s emissions of
carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. There is also no doubt that
the Arctic is actually ground zero for climate change — it’swarming
twice as fast as the globe as a whole.

But the Arctic is a very big place, and the regional patterns are just
as important as the overall trend.

No region has been affected more than the Barents Sea, located north of
Norway and Russia, and the nearby waters just north of the archipelago
of Svalbard. And as it turns out, thestrongesteffect in this part of the
Arctichas been — you guessed it — during winter, according to Onarheim.

Scientists are working hard to explainwhy this is so, and research
suggests that the answer can be summed upthis way: In this region, the
Arctic isexperiencing what some call “Atlantification.”

图片 4

The Gulf Stream, carrying warm Atlantic water, moves north along the
Norwegian coastanddivides into two main branches, one on either side
side of the island archipelago of Svalbard. In the Arctic Ocean, this
Atlantic water becomesdenser as it cools and therefore sinks. After
circulating, the now cold water leaves the Arctic Ocean, mainly through
the Fram Strait between Svalbard and Greenland.(Illustration: Audun
Igesund, Norwegian Polar Institute).

Scientists have known for 100 years that warm Atlantic water rides north
on the back of the Gulf Stream, and that extensions of that massive
current take it all the way up into the Barents Sea and over the top of
Svalbard. (See the map above.) Research has shownthat increasingly
warmAtlantic Ocean water carried on thesecurrents — about 1 degree C
warming since 1979 — isinhibitingsea ice from forming, even as winter
air temperatures continue to plunge well below freezing.

Research by Onarheim and her colleaguesshowsthat warming Atlantic waters
arriving north of Svalbard on the currents are having several specific
impacts. To start with, theypush underthe sea ice that does form,
inhibiting further growth and even causing it to melt from underneath.
This leaves the ice thinner and less extensive than it otherwise would
be.

With less floatingice forming a cap on the sea during winter, the
relatively warm sea water is able to give upmore heat to the atmosphere.
And that helps explain a nearly 7degree C increase in mean air
temperature north of Svalbard in winter, according to Onarheim’s
research.

As air temperatures naturally warm in the spring, the thinner ice can
melt out faster. That leaves the water exposed to sunlight for longer
periods. So it absorbs more energy and heats up— inhibiting the
formation of ice when cold air temperatures return with a vengeance in
the fall. And that means still less sea ice in the winter months.

图片 5

Here is how energy has been accumulating within Earth’s climate system,
thanks to humankind’s emissions of greenhouse gases. As the graph shows,
most of the energy has been been absorbed by the oceans. The rest has
gone to melting ice, warming continental land masses and the atmosphere.
(Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment
Report)

The oceans make up 70 percent of our planet’s surface.And water is
particularlyadept at soaking up heat. So much so, in fact,that Earth’s
oceans have absorbed more than 90 percent of the heat that has
accumulated in theplanet’s climate system due to our emissions of
greenhouse gases.

As we’ve now seen, some of that heat has a tendency to come out —
nowhere more readily than in the Arctic, where the frigid atmosphere is
practically begging to absorb heat, and where the Gulf Stream’s
northernmost extensions have been only too happy to oblige.

Onarheim’s overarching take-away message during her Arctic Frontiers
talk was this: Computer modeling of the climate system suggests that
unless we significantly rein in CO2 emissions soon, Arctic waters could
be sea-ice free during summer by about mid-century. Sea ice would still
form in winter. But the models also predict that continuing warming
would lead to ice-free Arctic watersin winterbetween 2061 and 2088.
(The rather large range represents the possible impact of natural
climate processes.)

In other words, the models are saying that in just a little more than
forty years, Arctic waters could be ice freeyear ’round. That would
give us a radically new Arctic — and a verydifferent planetthan the one
we live on today.

One lastthing: Sofar, Arctic sea ice has been disappearing more quickly
than the models have predicted. So we may not have to wait four decades
for completely ice-free Arctic waters.

“If we want to keep the ice cover, we have to reduce the CO2emissions,”
Onarheim says. “The faster we emit the CO2, the faster we will lose the
sea ice.”

后天我们用人造卫星和其余昂贵的设施来监测大家的景况、天气的改观并运维精密的Computer模型。可是有时候,大家只看土拨鼠来预感天气。

The next day, Phil found he was reliving the same day as yesterday, he
tried to act normal, but this day just kept repeating itself, he became
a little nutty, got drunk and had a little escapade with the police, the
next day it went back as nothing had ever happened.

Every February 2, a doughy rodent named Punxsutawney Phil briefly
emerges from his winter hibernation to have a look around. If he sees
his shadow, that means there will be six more weeks of winter. If he
doesn’t, we can assume that warm weather is looming.

Then he started to take a little advantage of the situation, women
chasing and bank robbing, then he tried to seduce Rita, painstakingly
improving bits by bits every day, but still failed. Then he got so
desperate and started to commit a series of suicides, car wrecking (with
the Groundhog Phil), electrocuting (bathtub with a toaster), hitting a
car, jumping from tower, and a bunch of others didn’t show in the film,
and of course, he couldn’t die.

年年九月2日,三头名字为庞克瑟托尼·Phil的软软的土拨鼠会从冬眠的洞里暴光头来四下看一看。假若它看到了投机的阴影,那就表示冬季还要持续6周。如若它没来看本身的影子,大家就能够借使温暖的气象即今后临。

He told Rita, they spent the day together, he confessed his love to her,
and the next day he decided to make some good out of this one day. He
studied, he learned to play piano, he went around to help people, and of
course, at the end, Rita fell in love with him and the next day was
come.

The ritual has been carried out in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania every year
since 1887. Relying on Phil is actually not much better than flipping a
coin—he’s right an estimated 64.4 percent of the time—but clearly
someone at one time believed a groundhog had predictive abilities. Who?
And why?

Favorite scenes:

自1887年来说,这一庆典每年都要在美利坚联邦合众国斯坦福州的庞克瑟托尼进行。事实上,靠Phil来预测天气的成功率不如抛硬币高多少——那只土拨鼠预测天气的正确率约为64.4%——但猛烈有人曾一度认为土拨鼠有展望天气的本领。是什么人吧?为啥会那样以为?

1, the two cold showers, first one is hilarious, second one even better,
tears actually are coming out.

To understand Phil’s current status, it helps to know that superstition
and weather have had a long association. Observers of the Christian
holiday Candlemas, for example, received candles blessed by clergymen.
If the skies were cloudy that day, warm weather was imminent; if the sun
was out, winter would persist.

2, the succession of slappings, the last one the force of the slap made
Phil naturally leaned towards the door and opened it for the angry
girl.

图片 6

3, of course the groundhog driving.

要精晓Phil脚下的地方,最佳能(CANON)领会迷信和气象时期长期以来的关系。举个例子来讲,伊斯兰教信众在圣烛节会收到牧师祝福过的火炬。假设圣烛节那天是层云,表明温暖的气象高速就要到来;借使太阳出来了,冬日将会不断下去。

4, the spade pounding in the telephone booth.

In Europe, the idea that winter’s duration could be foretold was carried
over to animal behavior. Hibernating animals like bears, marmots, and
hedgehogs were observed to see when they’d emerge from their dens.

5, the therapy session.

在澳洲,预测冬辰持续时间和动物行为扯到了共同。大家会阅览熊、旱獭、刺猬等冬眠动物,看它们会不会从洞里出来。

6, and every ‘I’ve got you, baby’ song, especially the one coming from
the broken radio.

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